Phil Flynn Trade Levels

Phil Flynn Trade Levels

Tuesday, November 10, 2026 · Quotes as of ~4:00–4:10 AM CT (QST)

Contact Phil Flynn at 888-264-5665 or pflynn@pricegroup.com.
Levels for reference only — not a recommendation. Day trade first · swing second · position third. Confirm live on your platform before acting.

Trade Calendar (Central Time)

Sources: MarketWatch Economic Calendar + Moore Research commodity calendar. Times converted to CT.

Seasonal notes (Moore Research tendencies): late harvest-low window in corn/soybeans still open; wheat seasonal support into winter; gold seasonal bid into year-end; heating oil/NG firm into heating season; lumber accumulation near lows; hogs seasonally soft into November.

Rate backdrop: The 10-year closed Monday at 4.88% (+2 bp). Fed funds futures: December 95.945 (−0.030) vs November 96.120, about 17.5 bp apart, and CME FedWatch shows roughly an 84% chance of a December hike. Today's CPI is the last inflation read before the Dec 8–9 FOMC; Richmond Fed's Barkin said Monday the Fed should move "with care."

Previous Levels Review

Monday's levels checked against Monday's session (from settlements) and this morning's overnight ranges (Monday 5:00 PM CT open to ~4:05 AM CT). Yellow = level traded. Gains/losses are vs the current quote; confirm fills in QST — Monday intraday highs/lows for Globex markets are inferred from settlements.

Not hit: wheat, oats, 30-year and Ultra Bond, palladium, all crypto rows (bitcoin, micro bitcoin, ether, micro ether) — Monday levels sat outside the ranges.

Energy

Driver: Oil fell for a second day after President Trump said new strikes on Iran are not needed "at this point" and called the war effectively over following White House talks with Qatar's prime minister. Brent is near $91 after a 5.85% drop Monday to its lowest since August 31, and down about 22% from the October 30 high near $118. The risk premium isn't gone: Iran's security chief Mohsen Rezaei denied any talks are happening, and Eurasia Group says Brent is unlikely to break $90 without a durable deal. OPEC output rose in October. Dec WTI 84.60 (−2.25) after Monday's 86.85 settle (−3.98). Both cracks are on their lower Bollinger bands — HO crack 84.93 vs a lower band of 84.87 (stochastic ~15), RBOB crack 24.68 with stochastic ~10 and momentum −17.7 — deeply oversold. NG Dec 3.238 holding Monday's jump; Jan 3.634. CPI, EIA STEO and API today.

Short-term: Jan CL 88 calls as cheap insurance if Tehran rejects the talks; Dec CL 83/79 put spread if Brent breaks $90 (Dec options expire ~Nov 19, confirm). Jan NG 3.65 straddle (Dec NG expires Nov 25).
Long-dated: Feb HO 4.00/4.40 call spread to play a crack bounce off the lower band into winter; Mar RBOB 2.60/2.85 call spread for a spring crack recovery; Mar NG 2.75 calls as a cold-snap lottery.

Metals

Driver: Gold Dec 4089.7 (−24.8) is giving back part of Monday's 1%-plus rally on profit-taking ahead of CPI, with FedWatch showing about an 84% chance of a December hike. Spot support sits near $4,088; a break opens the low $4,050s, while a close above ~$4,147 would break the falling trendline. Overnight, gold tagged Monday's Ultra Sell at 4145.0 and silver tagged 53.480 before both rolled over. Silver 52.450 (−0.243), platinum 1554.6 (−7.1), palladium 1031.00 (+9.50), copper 6.3165 (−0.0280). The oil collapse is a quiet positive for gold through lower inflation expectations, but a hot core CPI is the near-term risk. Dec metals first notice Nov 30.

Short-term: Dec GC 4050/4150 strangle through CPI and Friday's PPI; Mar copper 6.30 puts on a hot CPI.
Long-dated: Feb GC 4150/4350 call spread for year-end seasonal and central-bank demand; silver Feb 55/65 call spread (see scan below).

Silver options scan (long-silver proposal, refreshed to today): March silver is 53.295 (−0.049), up about 0.10 from Monday morning's 53.19 reference, after trading 52.900–54.415 overnight. Approximate fair values (refresh on the open):

Enter as one package at a limit, never leg by leg. Strikes 58 and up can be thin — check the screen before sizing. Maximum loss on every trade is the premium paid plus commissions. CPI at 7:30 AM CT can move these quotes sharply.

Treasuries

Driver: The 10-year closed Monday at 4.88% and futures are softer overnight ahead of CPI: ZN −6/32 at 106-28.0, ZF −5.5/32, ZT −3.75/32, bonds −3/32. Consensus sees October CPI +0.3% headline and +0.2% core, down from +0.6% and +0.3% in September; there will be no official year-over-year rate this month because October 2025 prices were never collected during the shutdown, so the monthly numbers carry all the weight. Fed funds futures: December 95.945 (−0.030) vs November 96.120, about 17.5 bp apart; FedWatch puts December hike odds near 84%. One-month SOFR Dec 95.925 (−0.030); three-month SOFR Dec 95.775 (−0.060). The 10-year auction is at noon CT; the cash market is closed Wednesday for Veterans Day. Dec Treasuries first notice Nov 30.

Short-term: ZN weekly 106-28 straddle through CPI and the auction; ZN Dec 106-00 puts on a hot core print.
Long-dated: ZB Mar call spreads on a growth scare; 2s/10s steepener; SR3 Mar puts if hike odds firm after CPI.

Currencies

Driver: The dollar index is steady at 101.585 (+0.050) after finding buyers at 101.380 overnight; it settled 101.535 Monday. The yen is the weak link at 0.63415 (−0.00160) as Treasury yields edge up into CPI. Euro 1.12425 (+0.00035) is near the bottom of its 1.12315–1.12670 range, sterling 1.3428 (−0.0013), Aussie 0.69080 (−0.00115). Lower oil eases the inflation story, but with December hike odds near 84% a hot core CPI would favor the dollar. Crypto is soft again even after Monday's equity rally: CME bitcoin 74,470 (−470), ether 2,103.50 (−28.50). Nov crypto futures expire Fri Nov 27.

Short-term: 6E weekly straddle around CPI; 6J Dec 0.6300 puts on a hot core print; Dec Micro Bitcoin 72,000 puts if 74,000 gives way.
Long-dated: DX Mar 103 calls if December hike odds hold; 6E Mar puts on fiscal risk; Mar Micro Bitcoin 85,000 calls as a year-end rebound lottery.

Grains

Driver: Short covering ahead of the 11:00 AM WASDE after Monday's pressure on the complex. Jan soybeans +7.6 to 1196.0 and meal +4.6 to 325.3 lead; corn +2.2 to 441.4; Chicago wheat +1.2, KC +3.6; soy oil −0.05 tracking crude. The trade average for corn is 15.944 billion bushels (range 15.344–16.203) on a 180.5 bpa yield, vs 16.034 billion and 181.2 in October. All 15 firms in the Dow Jones survey expect a record soybean yield — average 53.6 bpa and a 4.601 billion-bushel crop vs 4.562 in October. Dec grain options expire Nov 20; Dec futures first notice Nov 30.

Short-term: Dec corn 440 straddle into WASDE (expires Nov 20); Jan beans 1200 straddle — a record-yield number vs any export trim; sell Dec wheat 580 puts to get long near the seasonal low.
Long-dated: July wheat 650/700 call spread; March corn 480 calls; Jan soybean 1260 calls if China buying keeps building.

Stock Market Indices

Driver: Monday was an oil-led relief rally: the S&P 500 jumped 2.35% to 7,549.94, its best day since April 8; the Dow gained 1,104 points to 52,389.75; the Nasdaq rose 2.74%; the Russell 2000 gained more than 3%. Every S&P sector rose and the VIX closed at 19.92, its first close under 20 since the selloff began. Nvidia was the exception, down about 4% on its board investigation, while AMD jumped 13%. Overnight futures are mixed and quiet ahead of CPI: ES +5.75 at 7580.00, YM +162, NQ −44.25, RTY flat. Monday's rally ran through every sell level on the board — respect the momentum, but CPI decides whether it sticks.

Short-term: ES weekly 7580 straddle through CPI; NQ Dec 27500/27000 put spread as a hedge against a hot print.
Long-dated: Post-midterm seasonal ES Mar 7700/7900 call spread; RTY Mar 2900 calls (small caps led Monday); NQ Mar put spreads as an AI-capex hedge.

Softs

Driver: Cocoa broke below 5,000 — March 4969 (−151), a fresh low after Monday's slide, with ample supplies and weak grind demand still the story. Coffee rolled to March (268.15, +0.90) ahead of Dec first notice ~Nov 19; Dec 274.20. Sugar March 18.13 (−0.08). Cotton Dec 78.43 (−0.35), sitting on its overnight low. OJ Jan settled 146.05 (+6.40) after a 137.75–146.70 day.

Short-term: Cocoa May 4800/4400 put spread to stay with the trend; coffee Mar 270 straddle.
Long-dated: Cocoa July calls on any West Africa weather shift; coffee May call spreads; cotton Mar 80 calls for a short-covering pop.

Lumber

Driver: Lumber bounced off the 494–495 area Monday — November settled 511.50 (+7.50) and January 508.50 (+8.50) — but remains near two-year lows on weak housing. Seasonal accumulation bias near the lows. November expires Friday, Nov 13 — row rolled to January (LBRF27).

Meats

Driver: Short covering and bargain buying snapped the cattle washout Monday: Dec live cattle +2.15 to 216.20 after Friday's 11-month low, and Jan feeders +5.80 to 324.175 after a six-week low; the stock-market rebound helped. Cash cattle fell to $212–213 last week, so the bounce still needs cash confirmation. Dec hogs +2.35 to 55.875 off contract lows; the CME Lean Hog Index (61.57) keeps falling on heavy weights and weak pork demand.

Short-term: Live cattle Feb 220 calls for washout follow-through; lean hogs Dec 54 puts if the bounce fades.
Long-dated: April cattle call spreads for a washout bottom; Feb hog puts into winter.

Levels for reference only. Confirm live quotes. Contact Phil Flynn at 888-264-5665 or pflynn@pricegroup.com. Not a recommendation.

Phil Flynn, Senior Market Analyst, The PRICE Futures Group
888-264-5665 · pflynn@pricegroup.com · www.pricegroup.com

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