Phil Flynn Trade Levels

Phil Flynn Trade Levels
Thursday, October 29, 2026 · Levels set off overnight trade (near real-time as of ~early session)

yellow = prior level filled / hit · Ultra = most aggressive · Intra = secondary · unmarked = outlier · IDR = implied daily range (est.)
Day trade first · swing second · position third

Confirm live quotes on screen. Levels for reference only — not a recommendation. Contact Phil Flynn at 888-264-5665 or pflynn@pricegroup.com.

Trade Calendar (Central Time)

Sources: MarketWatch / agency calendars + Moore Research commodity calendar. Europe already off DST; U.S. falls back Sunday 11/1.

Seasonal notes (Moore Research tendencies — confirm in MRCI): late-October harvest-low tendency in corn and soybeans; wheat seasonal buy bias into winter; gold seasonal strength into year-end; heating oil and nat gas firm into heating season; lumber accumulation near seasonal lows; hogs seasonally weak into November; post-midterm Q4 equity seasonality historically strong.

Previous Levels Review (Wed session + overnight)

Near misses / verify on chart: Crude Intra 103.10 Sell (Wed high near 103); Brent Ultra 113.85 Buy (o/n low close); Nat Gas Ultra 3.085 Sell (likely tagged); Gold Ultra 4035.50 Buy (spot low ~4025–4035); Platinum/Copper prior Ultras tagged on spot (confirm futures); S&P/Nasdaq overnight lows close; 30-Year Bond Ultra 106-20 Buy likely filled post-Fed.

Energy

Driver: Peace-talk reports (VP Vance letter to Iran’s security chief) knocked crude ~1–2% overnight after Wednesday’s Ras Tanura/Hormuz spike. EIA supportive on the bullish side — crude −1.9M vs. expected build, distillates −1.5M (10% under 5-year), Cushing −624K — but gasoline built 3.9M. December nat gas is prompt; 12-month strip at a 26-month low on warm November maps; storage at 9:30. Current WTI ~100.75–101.50 (session low ~100.30–100.60, high ~102.30).

• Short-term: Dec CL 100/97 put spread into GDP/PCE as a cheap play on Iran-talks headline; flip to Dec 104 calls only on a close back over Intra 103.95. Dec NG 3.00 straddle through the storage number.
• Long-dated: Feb HO call spreads for a winter diesel squeeze with distillates 10% under normal; Mar Brent 105/95 put spread as peace-deal insurance for long physical; Mar NG 3.50 calls for a cold-snap lottery ticket off the 26-month strip low.

Metals

Driver: Fed held 3.75–4.00% with two dissents (Cook, Hammack) wanting a hike and the statement upgraded growth to “strong,” keeping a December hike in play. Gold slid to the 4025–4035 shelf on the decision and is holding; silver lost another ~1.5–2% overnight near 11-month lows. PCE at 7:30 is the next shove. Spot gold ~4025–4045 (low ~4021), silver ~52.50–52.90 (low ~52.48).

• Short-term: Dec GC 4000/4100 strangle through PCE — a hot core print breaks the 4025 shelf, a soft one runs shorts to 4085+. Silver: Dec 51/50 put spread on a 4025 gold break.
• Long-dated: Feb GC 4150/4350 call spread for year-end seasonal and central-bank buying; Mar silver 55 calls for a mean-reversion bounce off the lows. Copper: Mar HG 6.40 puts while COMEX stocks stay heavy.

Treasuries

Driver: Warsh’s “no forward guidance” presser steepened the curve — 2-year fell toward 4.70% while the 10-year popped to ~5.04–5.05% and the 30-year to ~5.37%. Overnight the 10-year is back near 5.00%. Markets still price ~79 bp of hikes over the next year; GDP/PCE at 7:30 and a $44B 7-year at noon.

• Short-term: ZN weekly straddle through PCE; or TY Dec 105 puts if core PCE prints 0.4% or hotter.
• Long-dated: ZB Mar 110 call spread — with Warsh cutting meetings and guidance, a growth scare could spark a duration rally from 5%+ yields. Curve: 2s/10s steepener via ZT long / ZN short.

Currencies

Driver: Dollar index backed off its two-week high to ~102.18 as traders read Warsh’s meeting cutback as dovish. Euro ~1.114–1.116 into the ECB (hold at 2.50% expected, December hike bias) with French bond stress and the biggest spec euro short in a decade. Yen ~157.75–157.90 ahead of tonight’s BoJ; sterling held up after a budget gilts liked.

• Short-term: 6E Nov 1.1150 straddle through Lagarde; 6J Nov 0.6350 calls into the BoJ for a hawkish surprise.
• Long-dated: 6E Mar 1.1000 puts on France fiscal risk; DX Mar 104 calls if PCE keeps the December hike locked. 6J Mar calls remain the intervention hedge near 158.

Grains

Driver: Wheat sold a thin Black Sea peace story to its first close under $6 and a four-month low, dragging bean oil and beans with it; a weak Brazilian real keeps South American beans competitive. Corn was the tell — up 3 with funds buying. Export sales at 7:30 AM; harvest-low seasonal window is open.

• Short-term: Dec wheat 590 puts as a day-trade hedge, or sell the 580 put to get long near the seasonal low. Dec corn 450 straddle around export sales and the PCE dollar move.
• Long-dated: July wheat 650/700 call spread on the winter seasonal; March corn 480 calls for South American weather; Jan soybean 1260 calls if China buying resumes.

Stock Market Indices

Driver: Alphabet dropped ~9–10% after hours on a profit miss and negative free cash flow, while Microsoft rose ~3% on Azure — Nasdaq futures off ~0.9–1.3%, S&P −0.3 to −0.5% and Dow +0.3–0.6%. Wednesday was the first Fed-day S&P gain since December 2025. GDP/PCE at 7:30, Caterpillar and Lilly before the bell, Amazon and Intel tonight. Current overnight: ES ~7760–7770, NQ ~29650–29700, YM ~52900–53000.

• Short-term: NQ Dec 29500/29000 put spread or 30000 calls on a soft PCE bounce. ES weekly straddle through GDP/PCE and Amazon earnings.
• Long-dated: Dec ES 7900 calls for post-midterm seasonal strength; NQ Mar 31000/33000 call spread if AI spending narrative stabilizes.

Softs, Meats & Lumber

Driver (softs): Cocoa and coffee sold off sharply Wednesday on improved West African weather talk and a stronger dollar after the Fed hold; cocoa filled prior Ultra/Intra buys and closed near the bottom of its range. Cotton held steady while sugar edged higher on lower Brazilian output reports. Orange juice remains range-bound after recent volatility. Markets largely closed overnight — levels can sit inside prior ranges where technicals dictate.

Driver (meats): Live cattle and lean hogs broke hard Wednesday on weak boxed beef/pork cutout and technical selling; hogs made new contract lows after filling prior Ultra/Intra buys. Feeder cattle also sold off. Cash trade remains light ahead of Thursday/Friday negotiations.

Driver (lumber): Nov lumber bounced modestly Wednesday off multi-month lows near 505–507 but remains under pressure from soft U.S. housing starts and elevated mortgage rates. Seasonal accumulation tendency noted near current levels.

• Short-term (softs): Dec cocoa 5400/5300 put spread if the 5380 low breaks; Dec coffee 280 puts as a day-trade hedge. Cotton: Dec 78 straddle around export sales / PCE dollar move.
• Long-dated (softs): Mar cocoa 5800/6200 call spread for a seasonal rebound off multi-month lows; Mar coffee 320 calls if Brazilian supply concerns re-emerge; May sugar 21.00 calls on weather risk.
• Short-term (meats): Dec LC 225/220 put spread or Dec LH 58 puts on further cash weakness. Feeder: Nov 340 puts if corn strength returns.
• Long-dated (meats): Feb LC 240 calls for a seasonal recovery into early 2027; Apr LH 70 calls on tighter supply expectations.
• Short-term (lumber): Nov 510 straddle or Nov 500 puts into housing data.
• Long-dated (lumber): Jan 530/560 call spread on seasonal accumulation and any housing stabilization.