Phil Flynn Trade Levels
Thursday, November 12, 2026. Quotes are from PRICE Trader Pro, 3:36–3:46 AM CT.Contact: 888-264-5665 | pflynn@pricegroup.comLevels for reference only. They are not a recommendation. Day trade first, swing second, position third. Confirm quotes, contract months and expirations with your broker.
Yesterday's scorecard and lessons: Fills are now in the "Yesterday's Hits" column beside each market. Filled levels are highlighted yellow, with gain or loss vs. the current quote; ✓ = in the money and ✗ = under water. Fills are checked against today's overnight ranges and the move from Wednesday's quote to now. Winners: crude (both sides), RBOB, nat gas, RBOB crack, the index sells, crypto sells, Jan beans sell and all three meats. Losers: gold buys, for the second day running (all four filled into a Fed-hike/dollar trend, −26 to −85), FX buys against the dollar breakout, and the HO crack sells. Adjustments today: Gold and FX buys sit further below on wider spacing. The HO crack flips to buy-the-dip, since stochastics are hooking up off the lower band. Don't fade the dollar until DX loses 102.550.

Trade Calendar (Central Time)

Day Event Time CT Forecast Previous Importance
Thu 11/12 Initial Jobless Claims 7:30 AM 195K 189K High
Thu 11/12 Nebius Q3 earnings / Nvidia leadership headlines Pre-open — — High (indices)
Thu 11/12 Existing Home Sales (Oct) 9:00 AM 3.87M — Medium
Thu 11/12 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status (holiday-delayed; API +9M crude) 10:00 AM Build — High (energy)
Thu 11/12 30-Year Bond Auction 12:00 PM — — High (rates)
Thu 11/12 Fed speakers incl. Williams TBA — — Medium
Thu 11/12 Fed Balance Sheet 3:30 PM — — Low
Fri 11/13 PPI Final Demand (Oct) / Core 7:30 AM +0.4% / +0.3% — High
Fri 11/13 EIA Nat Gas Storage (holiday-delayed) 9:30 AM +45 to +55 Bcf — High (nat gas)
Fri 11/13 Nov soybeans and Nov lumber last trade Close — — Roll

Seasonal notes: These are typical mid-November tendencies, so confirm them against the MRCI calendar. Jan heating oil usually firms into early December on heating demand. Mar wheat often builds a seasonal low from mid to late November. Feb hogs tend to work lows into December. Jan soybeans follow South American planting weather and Chinese buying. Mar cocoa main-crop arrivals usually weigh through November.

Rate backdrop: Fed funds are 3.75–4.00%. Oct CPI rose 0.4% (core +0.3%). Dec fed funds futures (95.925) imply about a 4.08% December average, which fully prices a 25 bp hike on Dec 9 with a small chance of 50. Jan one-month SOFR at 95.805 (≈4.20%) points the same way. The dollar index hit a 19-month high (cash 103.08).

Energy

Driver: WTI is down for a fifth straight session on hopes for progress in US–Iran and Russia–Ukraine talks. Higher OPEC+ output in October and a 9-million-barrel API crude build add pressure. Tanker attacks around Hormuz are limiting the losses. The holiday-delayed EIA report is out at 10:00 CT. Nat gas is firm on colder outlooks and record LNG feedgas (about 19.3 bcfd in November), with storage due Friday. The RBOB crack is deeply oversold (SSTO 9, sitting on the lower Bollinger band). The HO crack bounced off its lower band and stochastics are turning up.

Short-Term Option Play: Buy Jan WTI 88/91 call spread as a cheap Hormuz-headline hedge into the Dec options expiry (11/17). Day traders: buy the RBOB crack at Ultra 22.45 or Intra 21.95, risking below 21.20.

Long-Dated Option Play: Mar 2027 WTI 80/72 put spread for a peace-deal scenario. Jan nat gas 3.75/4.25 call spread for a cold December.

Market Yesterday's Hits (vs. current) Ultra Buy Intra Buy Outlier Buy 1 Outlier Buy 2 Ultra Sell Intra Sell Outlier Sell 1 Outlier Sell 2 Notes / Quote Time
Crude Oil Dec (ECLZ26) Ultra B 85.85 ✓ +0.19
Intra B 85.30 ✓ +0.74
Ultra S 87.10 ✓ +1.06		 Ultra 85.10 Intra 84.55 83.85 82.90 Ultra 87.65 Intra 88.20 88.95 90.10 86.04 (−0.49) @ 3:42 CT. ON range 85.20–87.54. 5th straight lower day. EIA 10:00 CT. Last trade 11/20 — roll to Jan (ECLF27 84.95) Mon 11/16–Tue 11/17.
Heating Oil Dec (EHOZ26) Ultra S 4.2150 ✓ +0.0138
Intra S 4.2450 ✓ +0.0438
Buys no fill (low 4.1580)		 Ultra 4.1480 Intra 4.1150 4.0700 4.0100 Ultra 4.2720 Intra 4.3050 4.3500 4.4100 4.2012 (−0.0101) @ 3:42 CT. ON range 4.1580–4.2616. Dec last trade 11/30.
RBOB Dec (ERBZ26) Ultra B 2.5950 ✓ +0.0020
Intra B 2.5750 ✓ +0.0220
Sells no fill (high 2.6245)		 Ultra 2.5660 Intra 2.5450 2.5150 2.4800 Ultra 2.6310 Intra 2.6500 2.6800 2.7200 2.5970 (−0.0105) @ 3:42 CT. ON range 2.5723–2.6245. Dec last trade 11/30.
Gas Oil Dec (GASZ26) y Ultra 1236.00 Intra 1218.00 1195.00 1165.00 Ultra 1279.00 Intra 1298.00 1320.00 1350.00 Est. ~1255.00. Confirm live. Nov ICE gasoil expires today (11/12), so the page uses Dec. Fixed yesterday's typo row.
Natural Gas Dec (ENGZ26) Ultra B 3.275 ✓ +0.031
Intra B 3.235 ✓ +0.071
Sells no fill (high 3.318)		 Ultra 3.218 Intra 3.185 3.140 3.090 Ultra 3.328 Intra 3.365 3.410 3.470 3.306 (+0.091) @ 3:42 CT. ON range 3.226–3.318. Storage Fri 9:30 CT. Dec expires 11/25.
HO–CL Crack Dec (EHOZ26:ECLZ26) Ultra S 89.90 ✗ −1.18
Intra S 90.60 ✗ −0.48
Buys no fill		 Ultra 89.30 Intra 88.40 87.20 85.80 Ultra 91.55 Intra 92.10 93.95 95.50 91.08. Range 89.44–91.40. Lower BB 85.75, ENV 92.07/93.93. SSTO 32/28 is hooking up. MOM −5.5. Bias: buy dips.
RBOB–CL Crack Dec (ERBZ26:ECLZ26) Ultra B 22.90 ✓ +0.33
Intra B 22.36: no fill		 Ultra 22.45 Intra 21.95 21.20 20.40 Ultra 23.40 Intra 24.10 25.00 26.70 23.23. Range 22.57–23.25. Riding the lower BB (21.94). SSTO 9 is deeply oversold. MOM −17.6. ENV 26.73/27.27.

Metals

Driver: Gold broke below $4,000 to its lowest level since Nov. 4 after the hot October CPI and hawkish Fed comments drove the dollar to a 19-month high. Traders now fully price a December hike and another in March. Silver, copper and the PGMs are lower with it. Friday's PPI is the next test.

Short-Term Option Play: Buy Dec gold 3900 puts or a weekly 3925/3875 put spread as a PPI hedge. Bigger buys wait for the Intra 3908.0 to Outlier 3862.0 zone.

Long-Dated Option Play: Feb gold 4100/4250 call spread for a rebound once the Fed hike is priced in (position trade). Mar silver 48.00 puts as the hedge.

Market Yesterday's Hits (vs. current) Ultra Buy Intra Buy Outlier Buy 1 Outlier Buy 2 Ultra Sell Intra Sell Outlier Sell 1 Outlier Sell 2 Notes / Quote Time
Gold Dec (EGCZ26) Ultra B 4031.0 ✗ −85.4
Intra B 4012.0 ✗ −66.4
O1 B 3995.0 ✗ −49.4
O2 B 3972.0 ✗ −26.4		 Ultra 3926.0 Intra 3908.0 3885.0 3862.0 Ultra 4008.0 Intra 4021.0 4040.0 4065.0 3945.6 (−54.9) @ 3:41 CT. ON range 3929.5–4005.9. Below 4000; one-week low. Dec first notice 11/30.
Silver Dec (ESIZ26) Ultra B 51.350 ✗ −0.200
Intra B 51.000 ✓ +0.150		 Ultra 50.650 Intra 50.300 49.800 49.150 Ultra 52.000 Intra 52.350 52.850 53.500 51.150 (−0.852) @ 3:41 CT. ON range 50.725–51.945.
Platinum Jan (EPLF27) Ultra B 1538.0 ✗ −9.3
Intra B 1528.0 ✓ +0.7		 Ultra 1521.0 Intra 1510.0 1495.0 1478.0 Ultra 1554.0 Intra 1566.0 1581.0 1600.0 1528.7 (−9.8) @ 3:41 CT. ON range 1523.1–1552.0.
Palladium Dec (EPAZ26) Ultra B 1018.00 missed by 1.00 Ultra 1017.00 Intra 1005.00 990.00 972.00 Ultra 1040.00 Intra 1052.00 1068.00 1085.00 1021.50 (−24.60) @ 3:41 CT. ON range 1019.00–1038.50.
Copper Dec (EHGZ26) Ultra B 6.2500 ✗ −0.0280
Intra B 6.2200 ✓ +0.0020		 Ultra 6.2050 Intra 6.1800 6.1450 6.1000 Ultra 6.2800 Intra 6.3050 6.3400 6.3850 6.2220 (−0.0680) @ 3:41 CT. ON range 6.2090–6.2745.

Treasuries

Driver: Treasuries are steady to slightly firmer overnight after the CPI-driven selloff, ahead of today's noon 30-year auction and Friday's PPI. Fed funds futures fully price a 25 bp hike on Dec 9 with a small chance of 50, and SOFR pricing leans toward another hike by March. A weak auction tail would put the Ultra buys in play.

Short-Term Option Play: Buy Friday weekly 10-year 105-24 puts against the auction and PPI. Sell rallies into the 107-17 to 107-26 sell zone in the bond.

Long-Dated Option Play: Mar 2027 three-month SOFR put spread (buy the 95.625 put, sell the 95.375 put) to hedge a 50 bp/March-hike path.

Market Yesterday's Hits (vs. current) Ultra Buy Intra Buy Outlier Buy 1 Outlier Buy 2 Ultra Sell Intra Sell Outlier Sell 1 Outlier Sell 2 Notes / Quote Time
30-Year Bond Dec (ZBZ26) Ultra S 107-08 ✓ flat
Intra S 107-20: no fill		 Ultra 106-31 Intra 106-22 106-10 105-28 Ultra 107-17 Intra 107-26 108-06 108-20 107-08 (+0-06) @ 3:41 CT. ON range 107-01–107-16. 30-yr auction at noon CT.
Ultra T-Bond Dec (UBZ26) Ultra S 108-14 ✗ −12/32
Intra S 108-30 ✓ +4/32		 Ultra 108-16 Intra 108-04 107-22 107-06 Ultra 109-05 Intra 109-16 109-30 110-14 108-26 (+0-07) @ 3:41 CT. ON range 108-18–109-04.
10-Year Note Dec (ZNZ26) Ultra S 106-10.5 missed by 1/32 Ultra 105-31.5 Intra 105-27.0 105-20.0 105-12.0 Ultra 106-10.0 Intra 106-14.5 106-20.0 106-27.0 106-05.0 (+0-04.0) @ 3:41 CT. ON range 106-00.0–106-09.5.
Ultra 10-Year Dec (TNZ26) Ultra S 107-22.0 ✓ flat
Intra S 107-30.0: no fill		 Ultra 107-16.0 Intra 107-09.0 107-00.0 106-22.0 Ultra 107-28.5 Intra 108-02.0 108-10.0 108-20.0 107-22.0 (+0-04.0) @ 3:41 CT. ON range 107-16.5–107-28.0.
5-Year Note Dec (ZFZ26) Ultra B 104-09.25 missed by 1/32 Ultra 104-10.00 Intra 104-06.50 104-02.00 103-28.00 Ultra 104-16.00 Intra 104-19.50 104-24.00 104-30.00 104-13.25 (+0-03.50) @ 3:41 CT. ON range 104-10.25–104-15.75.
2-Year Note Dec (ZTZ26) Ultra B 101-29.4 ✓ +1¼/32 Ultra 101-29.1 Intra 101-27.6 101-25.6 101-23.1 Ultra 101-31.6 Intra 102-01.1 102-03.1 102-05.6 101-30.7 (+0-01.7) @ 3:41 CT. ON range 101-29.3–101-31.3. Dec Treasuries first notice 11/30.

Currencies

Driver: The dollar index hit a 19-month high (cash 103.08) on Fed hike bets. USD/JPY touched 159.95, and Japan's currency chief warned it is "too early to forget" intervention. The Aussie is near a 10-month low. Bitcoin is stuck near $73,500 after five straight sessions of spot ETF outflows (about $1.44B), with $72,000 as key support. The crypto rows are at the bottom of the table.

Short-Term Option Play: Dec yen 0.6300 calls as a cheap intervention lottery ticket above 160. Nov bitcoin 72,000 puts into the 11/27 expiry.

Long-Dated Option Play: Mar euro 1.1000 puts on rate divergence (swing/position). Mar dollar index 104.00 calls if the 50 bp talk gains traction.

Market Yesterday's Hits (vs. current) Ultra Buy Intra Buy Outlier Buy 1 Outlier Buy 2 Ultra Sell Intra Sell Outlier Sell 1 Outlier Sell 2 Notes / Quote Time
Dollar Index Dec (DXZ26) Ultra S 102.450 ✗ −0.350
Intra S 102.650 ✗ −0.150
O1 S 102.900: confirm		 Ultra 102.550 Intra 102.380 102.150 101.850 Ultra 102.950 Intra 103.150 103.400 103.750 102.800 (−0.020) @ 3:36 CT. Cash DXY high 103.08 (19-month high). No futures range on screen; confirm live.
Euro Dec (6EZ26) Ultra B 1.11420 ✗ −0.00345
Intra B 1.11250 ✗ −0.00175		 Ultra 1.10900 Intra 1.10700 1.10400 1.10000 Ultra 1.11350 Intra 1.11550 1.11850 1.12250 1.11075 (+0.00010) @ 3:36 CT. Range not on screen; confirm live.
Japanese Yen Dec (6JZ26) Ultra B 0.63040 ✗ −0.00270
Intra B 0.62950 ✗ −0.00180
O1 B 0.62800 ✗ −0.00030		 Ultra 0.62650 Intra 0.62550 0.62400 0.62200 Ultra 0.62950 Intra 0.63080 0.63250 0.63500 0.62770 (+0.00050) @ 3:36 CT. USD/JPY hit 159.95; intervention risk above 160.
British Pound Dec (6BZ26) Ultra B 1.3305 ✗ −0.0031
Intra B 1.3280 ✗ −0.0006		 Ultra 1.3245 Intra 1.3220 1.3185 1.3140 Ultra 1.3310 Intra 1.3335 1.3370 1.3420 1.3274 (−0.0004) @ 3:36 CT. Confirm range.
Australian Dollar Dec (6AZ26) Ultra B 0.68520 ✗ −0.00275
Intra B 0.68400 ✗ −0.00155		 Ultra 0.68150 Intra 0.68000 0.67800 0.67550 Ultra 0.68480 Intra 0.68620 0.68850 0.69150 0.68245 (−0.00200) @ 3:36 CT. Near a 10-month low.
Bitcoin Nov (BTCX26) Ultra S 74300 ✓ +820
Intra S 74900: confirm		 Ultra 72950 Intra 72400 71500 70200 Ultra 74050 Intra 74750 75500 76500 73480 (−1245) @ 3:36 CT. 72,000 is key support. Nov expires 11/27.
Micro Bitcoin Nov (MBTX26) Ultra S 74300 ✓ +805 Ultra 72950 Intra 72400 71500 70200 Ultra 74050 Intra 74750 75500 76500 73495 (−1230) @ 3:36 CT. Nov expires 11/27.
Ether Nov (ETHX26) Ultra S 2078.00 ✓ +30.50 Ultra 2025.00 Intra 2005.00 1980.00 1945.00 Ultra 2072.00 Intra 2090.00 2115.00 2150.00 2047.50 (−36.00) @ 3:36 CT. Nov expires 11/27.
Micro Ether Nov (METX26) Ultra S 2078.00 ✓ +30.00 Ultra 2025.00 Intra 2005.00 1980.00 1945.00 Ultra 2072.00 Intra 2090.00 2115.00 2150.00 2048.00 (−35.50) @ 3:36 CT. Nov expires 11/27.

Grains

Driver: The market is still digesting a friendly WASDE that cut corn ending stocks 91 million bushels to 1.758 billion. Soybeans slipped overnight after China's October imports came in at a seven-month low. Wheat is firm: China booked French and Argentine cargoes, Germany cut its crop 14%, and the Black Sea talks produced no shipping deal. Nov beans expire Friday.

Short-Term Option Play: Buy Jan soybeans 1220 weekly puts against a failed WASDE follow-through. Day traders: buy wheat at Ultra 596.4, risk 588.4.

Long-Dated Option Play: Mar corn 470 calls on the tighter carryout. Mar wheat 640 calls for Black Sea risk and the seasonal low.

Market Yesterday's Hits (vs. current) Ultra Buy Intra Buy Outlier Buy 1 Outlier Buy 2 Ultra Sell Intra Sell Outlier Sell 1 Outlier Sell 2 Notes / Quote Time
Corn Dec (ZCZ26) Ultra B 446.4 ✓ flat
Intra B 444.0: no fill		 Ultra 445.4 Intra 443.2 440.0 436.4 Ultra 449.4 Intra 451.6 455.0 459.4 446.4 (−1.4) @ 3:37 CT. ON range 446.0–449.0. Dec first notice 11/30.
Soybeans Jan (ZSF27) Ultra S 1231.0 ✓ +5¼¢
Buys no fill (low 1223.4)		 Ultra 1222.6 Intra 1218.0 1211.4 1203.0 Ultra 1232.4 Intra 1237.0 1243.4 1252.0 1225.6 (−5.0) @ 3:37 CT. ON range 1223.4–1231.4. Nov beans expire Fri 11/13.
Wheat Dec (ZWZ26) No fill (range 597.4–603.0) Ultra 596.4 Intra 593.0 588.4 582.0 Ultra 603.6 Intra 607.0 612.4 618.0 597.6 (−1.6) @ 3:37 CT.
Soybean Meal Dec (ZMZ26) Ultra S 328.4 ✗ −1.0
Intra S 330.0 ✓ +0.6		 Ultra 327.8 Intra 326.0 323.5 320.0 Ultra 330.4 Intra 332.0 334.5 338.0 329.4 (−0.3) @ 3:37 CT. ON range 328.1–330.0.
Soybean Oil Dec (ZLZ26) Ultra S 63.48 ✗ −0.18
Intra S 63.80 ✓ +0.14		 Ultra 63.48 Intra 63.15 62.70 62.10 Ultra 64.18 Intra 64.50 65.00 65.60 63.66 (−0.22) @ 3:37 CT. ON range 63.56–64.09.
Oats Dec (ZOZ26) Range not on screen; confirm Ultra 344.4 Intra 341.0 336.0 330.0 Ultra 351.0 Intra 355.0 359.4 365.0 347.2 (−3.4) @ 3:36 CT. Confirm live.

Stock Market Indices

Driver: Nasdaq futures are leading lower after Nvidia fell about 7% premarket on reports its board is weighing the ouster of CEO Jensen Huang. That threatens Wednesday's CoreWeave-led rally, when the Nasdaq 100 gained 2.28%. Dow futures are steady to higher on rotation. Nebius reports before the open, and the yield and Fed hike backdrop caps the upside.

Short-Term Option Play: Buy Nasdaq weekly 28000 puts as a hedge on the Nvidia headline risk. Buy ES at Ultra 7597.00 or Intra 7578.00 only with a stop under 7550.00.

Long-Dated Option Play: Mar ES 7400/7200 put spread as portfolio protection into the Dec 9 FOMC. Mar Russell 2900 calls if small caps keep outperforming tech.

Market Yesterday's Hits (vs. current) Ultra Buy Intra Buy Outlier Buy 1 Outlier Buy 2 Ultra Sell Intra Sell Outlier Sell 1 Outlier Sell 2 Notes / Quote Time
E-mini Nasdaq Dec (NQZ26) Ultra S 28300.00 ✗ −1.25
Intra S 28450.00 ✓ +148.75		 Ultra 28120.00 Intra 28000.00 27820.00 27600.00 Ultra 28380.00 Intra 28480.00 28620.00 28800.00 28301.25 (−172.00) @ 3:40 CT. ON range 28131.75–28368.75.
E-mini Dow Dec (YMZ26) Ultra S 52480 ✗ −151
Intra S 52650 ✓ +19		 Ultra 52490 Intra 52380 52200 51950 Ultra 52720 Intra 52850 53050 53300 52631 (+53) @ 3:40 CT. ON range 52511–52696.
E-mini S&P Dec (ESZ26) Ultra S 7605.00 ✗ −14.00
Intra S 7625.00 ✓ +6.00		 Ultra 7597.00 Intra 7578.00 7550.00 7515.00 Ultra 7632.00 Intra 7650.00 7672.00 7705.00 7619.00 (−21.50) @ 3:40 CT. ON range 7600.50–7628.50.
Russell Dec (RTYZ26) Ultra S 2855.00 ✓ +1.40 Ultra 2842.00 Intra 2832.00 2818.00 2800.00 Ultra 2861.00 Intra 2870.00 2885.00 2905.00 2853.60 (−0.10) @ 3:40 CT. ON range 2844.00–2859.00. RTY1- continuous.

Softs

Driver: Cocoa bounced 3% Wednesday off a four-month low (4,764), but record ICE inventories and weak grind demand keep the trend down. Arabica hit a six-week low as Brazil's 27/28 crop looks good. Sugar bounced off a five-week low (17.92), though lower energy prices undermine ethanol parity. Dec cotton first notice is about 11/24.

Short-Term Option Play: Mar coffee 250 puts. Sell cocoa rallies into the Ultra 4960 to Intra 5010 area.

Long-Dated Option Play: May cocoa 6000 calls as a cheap El Niño crop-scare hedge. Mar sugar 17.50 puts.

Market Yesterday's Hits (vs. current) Ultra Buy Intra Buy Outlier Buy 1 Outlier Buy 2 Ultra Sell Intra Sell Outlier Sell 1 Outlier Sell 2 Notes / Quote Time
Cocoa Mar (ECOH27) Ultra S 4860 ✗ −47
Intra S 4905 ✗ −2		 Ultra 4860 Intra 4810 4750 4680 Ultra 4960 Intra 5010 5080 5160 4907 settle (+165). Not trading yet; confirm live.
Coffee Mar (EKCH27) Ultra B 264.00 ✗ −0.85
Intra B 262.25: confirm		 Ultra 261.50 Intra 259.75 257.00 253.50 Ultra 265.00 Intra 267.25 270.00 274.00 263.15 (−1.50) @ 3:36 CT. Range not on screen.
Sugar Mar (ESBH27) Ultra S 18.42 ✓ +0.24 Ultra 18.05 Intra 17.92 17.75 17.50 Ultra 18.35 Intra 18.50 18.70 19.00 18.18 (−0.30) @ 3:36 CT.
Cotton Dec (ECTZ26) Ultra B 78.45: confirm (settle 78.52) Ultra 78.40 Intra 78.05 77.60 77.00 Ultra 79.15 Intra 79.55 80.10 80.90 78.78 (+0.26) @ 3:36 CT. Dec first notice ~11/24; roll to Mar (82.66) next week.
Orange Juice Jan (EOJF27) No fill Ultra 143.50 Intra 141.50 138.00 134.00 Ultra 148.00 Intra 150.50 154.00 159.00 145.75 settle (−1.00). Confirm live.

Lumber

Driver: Lumber is thin and rate-sensitive. Today's existing home sales and the Fed-hike repricing are headwinds for housing demand. Nov lumber goes off the board Friday, so levels use Jan.

Short-Term Option Play: Futures only; options liquidity is thin. Trade the Ultra levels with tight stops.

Long-Dated Option Play: None recommended. Watch housing starts and mortgage rates.

Market Yesterday's Hits (vs. current) Ultra Buy Intra Buy Outlier Buy 1 Outlier Buy 2 Ultra Sell Intra Sell Outlier Sell 1 Outlier Sell 2 Notes / Quote Time
Lumber Jan (LBRF27) Not on screens; confirm Ultra 509.00 Intra 503.00 496.00 487.00 Ultra 521.50 Intra 528.00 536.00 548.00 Last ~515.50. Confirm live. Nov lumber expires Fri 11/13.

Meats

Driver: Dec live cattle slipped 22 cents Wednesday as Choice boxed beef fell $2.72 to $360.26 and cash trade stayed quiet, with packers waiting until late week. Nov feeders gained $2.27 to $332.62 while the feeder index eased to $330.42. Hogs edged higher. Nov feeders expire 11/19, so levels use Jan.

Short-Term Option Play: Feb live cattle 225 calls if cash firms late week. Buy Dec hogs at Ultra 55.400.

Long-Dated Option Play: Apr live cattle 220 puts as a hedge against a beef demand slowdown. Feb hogs 58.00 puts for the seasonal low into December.

Market Yesterday's Hits (vs. current) Ultra Buy Intra Buy Outlier Buy 1 Outlier Buy 2 Ultra Sell Intra Sell Outlier Sell 1 Outlier Sell 2 Notes / Quote Time
Live Cattle Dec (LEZ26) Ultra B 217.50 ✓ +1.475 Ultra 217.800 Intra 216.900 215.500 213.800 Ultra 220.000 Intra 221.000 222.500 224.500 218.975 settle (−0.225). Wed range 217.375–219.725. Closed overnight, so levels sit inside the range.
Feeder Cattle Jan (GFF27) Ultra S 329.50 ✓ +1.700
Buys no fill (low 325.25)		 Ultra 325.800 Intra 324.000 321.500 318.000 Ultra 330.300 Intra 332.200 335.000 339.000 327.800 settle (+1.125). Wed range 325.250–330.125. Nov GF expires 11/19; using Jan.
Lean Hogs Dec (HEZ26) Ultra B 55.00 ✓ +1.025 Ultra 55.400 Intra 54.800 54.000 53.000 Ultra 56.500 Intra 57.100 57.900 59.000 56.025 settle (+0.225). Wed range 55.000–56.300.

Week Ahead

 

  • Fri 11/13: PPI (7:30 CT), EIA nat gas storage (9:30 CT), Fed speakers. Nov soybeans and Nov lumber expire.
  • Tue 11/17: Dec WTI options expire; roll crude to Jan.
  • Wed 11/18: FOMC minutes (October meeting).
  • Thu 11/19: Nov feeder cattle expire.
  • Fri 11/20: Dec WTI futures last trade. Dec grain and Treasury options expire. USDA Cattle on Feed (confirm).
  • Tue 11/24: Dec cotton first notice (approx.). Dec gold and nat gas options expire around 11/23–24.
  • Wed 11/25: Dec nat gas futures expire; last good day to roll Dec grains, metals and Treasuries.
  • Thu 11/26: Thanksgiving; U.S. markets closed. Fri 11/27: Abbreviated session; Nov crypto futures expire.
  • Mon 11/30: First notice for Dec grains, metals and Treasuries. Dec HO and RBOB last trade.
  • Dec 4 / Dec 9 / Dec 10: Nov jobs report / FOMC decision (hike fully priced) / Nov CPI.

 

Phil Flynn
Senior Market Analyst
The PRICE Futures Group
888-264-5665
pflynn@pricegroup.com
www.pricegroup.com

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TUESDAY, NOV. 7            
7:30 am U.S. trade deficit Sept.   -$59.8B   $58.3 billion
8:15 am Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr speaks          
9:00 am Fed Gov. Waller speaks          
3:00 pm Consumer credit Sept.   $9.5B -15.6  
 3:30  API Energy Stocks
 		          

 

 
 

 

Levels for reference only. Confirm live quotes. Contact Phil Flynn at 888-264-5665 or pflynn@pricegroup.com. Not a recommendation.

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