Phil Flynn Trade Levels
Phil Flynn Trade Levels
Friday, October 30, 2026 · Levels set off overnight / early session trade (near real-time as of ~early CT)
n. Contact Phil Flynn at 888-264-5665 or pflynn@pricegroup.com.
Trade Calendar (Central Time)
Sources: MarketWatch / agency calendars + Moore Research commodity calendar. Europe already off DST; U.S. falls back Sunday 11/1.
| Event | Time (CT) | Forecast | Previous | Importance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri Employment Cost Index Q3 | 7:30 AM | +0.8% | +0.9% | Medium |
| Fri Chicago PMI (Oct) | 8:45 AM | ~56.0–56.1 | 58.8 | Medium |
| Fri Fed’s Daly / Musalem speak | ~11:00 / 11:30 AM | — | — | Medium |
| Fri Baker Hughes Rig Count | 12:00 PM | — | — | Medium (Energy) |
| Fri CFTC COT | 2:30 PM | — | — | Low |
| Fri Month-end; ICE Brent Dec / NYMEX HO & RB Nov expiry | Close | — | — | High (Energy) |
| Next week ISM Mfg (Mon), Midterms (Tue), Refunding (Wed), Jobs (Fri 11/6) | — | — | — | High |
Seasonal notes (Moore Research tendencies — confirm in MRCI): late-October harvest-low tendency in corn and soybeans; wheat seasonal buy bias into winter; gold seasonal strength into year-end; heating oil and nat gas firm into heating season; lumber accumulation near seasonal lows; hogs seasonally weak into November; post-midterm Q4 equity seasonality historically strong.
Previous Levels Review (Thu session + overnight into Fri)
Many prior Ultras/Intras from the Oct 29 set were tagged or filled on the Wednesday session, Thursday trade, or overnight (as previously flagged). Notable follow-through or near-misses into early Friday: energy held/rebounded above prior lows; metals continued softer (gold/silver lower); equities (especially Nasdaq) weaker overnight on Big Tech earnings (Alphabet, Amazon, Intel). Confirm exact fills on charts. Prior energy Ultra sells and grain/softs/meats buys largely worked as noted yesterday.
Energy
Driver: Oil rebounding in the early session (~$103.80–104 WTI area, session high near 105, low ~102.45) after recent Hormuz/Ras Tanura and Iran peace-talk headline whiplash. Distillates remain tight versus 5-year; gasoline builds and warm November maps keep a lid on products and NG. Month-end + some expiries. Current NG ~2.91–2.92.
- Short-term: Dec CL 102/99 put spread or 105 calls on a hold above Intra; Dec NG 2.90 straddle through storage follow-through. Dec crude 100 put
- Long-dated: Feb HO call spreads for winter diesel (distillates still lean); Mar Brent put spreads as peace-deal insurance; Mar NG 3.50 calls as cold-snap lottery off the strip lows. OR March NG 2.00 puts
| Market | Ultra Buy | Intra Buy | Outlier Buy | Ultra Sell | Intra Sell | Outlier Sell | Notes / Previous Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil Dec (CLZ26) | Ultra 102.20 | Intra 101.70 | 101.00 | Ultra 105.20 | Intra 105.80 | 106.60 | ~103.80–104.00 (low ~102.45, high ~105). IDR ±2.90. Prior Ultra 102.35 sell filled. |
| Brent Jan (BZF27) | Ultra 111.80 | Intra 111.20 | 110.40 | Ultra 117.40 | Intra 118.10 | 119.00 | ~112.50–116.80 area (sources vary on prompt). IDR ±2.85. Prior Ultra 116.40 sell filled. Dec expires Fri. |
| Heating Oil Dec (HOZ26) | Ultra 4.5400 | Intra 4.4900 | 4.4200 | Ultra 4.7200 | Intra 4.7800 | 4.8600 | ~4.58–4.68 est. IDR ±0.13. Nov expires Fri. |
| RBOB Dec (RBZ26) | Ultra 3.0700 | Intra 3.0300 | 2.9800 | Ultra 3.1800 | Intra 3.2200 | 3.2700 | ~3.10–3.15 est. IDR ±0.08. Gasoline builds cap rallies. Nov expires Fri. |
| Nat Gas Dec (NGZ26) | Ultra 2.860 | Intra 2.820 | 2.760 | Ultra 2.980 | Intra 3.030 | 3.100 | Now prompt; ~2.91–2.92. IDR ±0.10. Prior Ultra 3.085 sell likely tagged. |
| Gas Oil | Ultra 1220 | Intra 1208 | 1194 | Ultra 1450 | Intra 1463 | 1480 | Confirm live. |
| HO-CL Crack Dec | Ultra 92.00 | Intra 90.00 | 87.50 | Ultra 96.50 | Intra 98.50 | 101.00 | $/bbl (HO × 42 − CL). Prior Ultra 96.00 buy filled. |
| RB-CL Crack Dec | Ultra 26.80 | Intra 25.80 | 24.50 | Ultra 29.50 | Intra 30.50 | 32.00 | $/bbl (RB × 42 − CL). Prior Ultra 29.50 buy filled. |
Metals
Driver: Gold holding the 3975–3995 shelf after Fed hold and PCE; silver extending losses near multi-month lows (~50.60–50.90). Dollar and yields still in play; central-bank buying and seasonal year-end support the longer-term bid. Copper ~6.51–6.52.
- Short-term: Dec GC 3950/4050 strangle or 4000 puts on a break of the shelf; silver Dec 50/49 put spread.
- Long-dated: Feb GC 4100/4300 call spread for year-end seasonal + CB demand; Mar silver 55 calls for mean-reversion; Mar HG puts while stocks heavy.
| Market | Ultra Buy | Intra Buy | Outlier Buy | Ultra Sell | Intra Sell | Outlier Sell | Notes / Previous Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Dec (GCZ26) | Ultra 3965.50 | Intra 3940.50 | 3910.00 | Ultra 4055.50 | Intra 4080.00 | 4115.50 | Spot ~3975–3995 (low ~3964). IDR ±55. Prior Ultra 4035.50 buy — verify. |
| Silver Dec (SIZ26) | Ultra 50.20 | Intra 49.70 | 49.00 | Ultra 52.40 | Intra 52.90 | 53.50 | Spot ~50.60–50.90 (low ~50.48). IDR ±1.10. Prior Ultra 53.50 / Intra 53.00 buys filled. |
| Platinum Jan (PLF27) | Ultra 1420.0 | Intra 1400.0 | 1370.0 | Ultra 1485.0 | Intra 1510.0 | 1540.0 | Spot ~1435–1440. IDR ±28. Prior Ultra tagged on spot (verify). |
| Palladium Dec (PAZ26) | Ultra 960.00 | Intra 940.00 | 910.00 | Ultra 1020.00 | Intra 1040.00 | 1070.00 | Spot ~975–980. IDR ±20. |
| Copper Dec (HGZ26) | Ultra 6.4800 | Intra 6.4200 | 6.3000 | Ultra 6.6200 | Intra 6.6800 | 6.7800 | ~6.51–6.52. IDR ±0.09. Prior Ultra tagged on spot (verify). |
Treasuries
Driver: Curve still steepened post-Fed (Warsh “no forward guidance”); 10-year near 5.00%, 30-year ~5.33–5.37%. ECI and Chicago PMI next; markets price further hikes.
- Short-term: ZN weekly straddle; TY Dec puts on hotter ECI.
- Long-dated: ZB Mar call spreads on a growth scare; 2s/10s steepener.
| Market | Ultra Buy | Intra Buy | Outlier Buy | Ultra Sell | Intra Sell | Outlier Sell | Notes / Previous Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year T-Bond (ZBZ26) | Ultra 105-20 | Intra 105-04 | 104-12 | Ultra 107-12 | Intra 107-28 | 108-16 | 30-yr ~5.33–5.37%. Prior Ultra 106-20 buy likely filled. Confirm. |
| 10-Year Note (ZNZ26) | Ultra 104-24 | Intra 104-14 | 104-00 | Ultra 106-00 | Intra 106-12 | 106-28 | 10-yr ~4.99–5.05%. IDR ±14/32. Confirm. |
| 5-Year Note (ZFZ26) | Ultra 103-04 | Intra 102-26 | 102-12 | Ultra 104-14 | Intra 104-26 | 105-10 | 5-yr ~4.84%. Confirm. |
| 2-Year Note (ZTZ26) | Ultra 101-04 | Intra 100-28 | 100-18 | Ultra 102-08 | Intra 102-20 | 103-00 | 2-yr ~4.70%. Confirm. |
Currencies
Driver: Dollar backed off recent highs (~102 area) post-Fed; euro into recent ECB hold; yen soft ahead of BoJ follow-through.
- Short-term: 6E Nov straddle; 6J calls on any hawkish lean.
- Long-dated: 6E Mar puts on fiscal risk; DX Mar calls if data keeps hikes live.
| Market | Ultra Buy | Intra Buy | Outlier Buy | Ultra Sell | Intra Sell | Outlier Sell | Notes / Previous Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dollar Index (DXZ26) | Ultra 101.60 | Intra 101.35 | 100.95 | Ultra 102.50 | Intra 102.80 | 103.20 | ~102.0–102.2. IDR ±0.40. |
| Euro (6EZ26) | Ultra 1.1070 | Intra 1.1040 | 1.0995 | Ultra 1.1190 | Intra 1.1225 | 1.1275 | Spot ~1.114 area. Spot basis; add futures premium. |
| Yen (6JZ26) | Ultra 0.6270 | Intra 0.6245 | 0.6205 | Ultra 0.6355 | Intra 0.6385 | 0.6430 | USD/JPY ~157.8 area. Spot basis. |
| British Pound (6BZ26) | Ultra 1.3200 | Intra 1.3150 | 1.3080 | Ultra 1.3400 | Intra 1.3450 | 1.3520 | Est. ~1.33. Confirm. |
| Aussie (6AZ26) | Ultra 0.6910 | Intra 0.6880 | 0.6840 | Ultra 0.7040 | Intra 0.7075 | 0.7120 | Est. ~0.70. Confirm. |
Grains
Driver: Mixed overnight — corn soft, beans/wheat firmer on short covering after recent lows and export interest (China COFCO shopping U.S. wheat). Harvest-low seasonal window open; weak Brazilian real still competitive for SA beans.
- Short-term: Dec wheat 590 puts or sell 580 put to get long near seasonal low; Dec corn straddle.
- Long-dated: July wheat 650/700 call spread; March corn 480 calls; Jan soybean 1260 calls if China buying resumes.
| Market | Ultra Buy | Intra Buy | Outlier Buy | Ultra Sell | Intra Sell | Outlier Sell | Notes / Previous Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn Dec (ZCZ26) | Ultra 446.4 | Intra 443.0 | 438.4 | Ultra 455.4 | Intra 458.6 | 463.0 | ~449.5–451.5. IDR ±6. Prior levels nearby. |
| Soybeans Nov (ZSX26) | Ultra 1210.4 | Intra 1204.0 | 1196.4 | Ultra 1234.4 | Intra 1242.0 | 1252.4 | ~1220–1225. Prior Ultra 1226.4 filled. |
| Wheat Dec (ZWZ26) | Ultra 592.4 | Intra 587.0 | 579.4 | Ultra 612.4 | Intra 618.0 | 626.4 | ~600–604. Prior Ultra 606.4 / Intra 601.0 filled. |
| Soy Meal Dec (ZMZ26) | Ultra 327.5 | Intra 324.0 | 319.0 | Ultra 339.5 | Intra 343.0 | 348.5 | ~329–336 area. |
| Soy Oil Dec (ZLZ26) | Ultra 65.00 | Intra 64.50 | 63.70 | Ultra 67.00 | Intra 67.50 | 68.30 | ~65.5–66.1. Prior Ultra/Intra filled. |
| Oats Dec (ZOZ26) | Ultra 338.0 | Intra 334.4 | 329.0 | Ultra 354.4 | Intra 358.0 | 363.4 | ~343 area. Confirm. |
Stock Market Indices
Driver: Nasdaq futures sharply lower overnight (~2%+) on Alphabet miss, Amazon cash-burn concerns, and Intel outlook; S&P softer, Dow more resilient. Month-end, ECI/Chicago PMI, residual Big Tech reaction. Overnight: ES ~7670–7680, NQ ~28900–29000 area, YM ~52400–52500.
- Short-term: NQ Dec 28500/28000 put spread or 29500 calls on a soft-data bounce; ES weekly straddle.
- Long-dated: Post-midterm seasonal equity calls; NQ Mar put spreads as AI-capex hedge.
| Market | Ultra Buy | Intra Buy | Outlier Buy | Ultra Sell | Intra Sell | Outlier Sell | Notes / Previous Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E-mini S&P Dec (ESZ26) | Ultra 7640.00 | Intra 7600.00 | 7540.00 | Ultra 7730.00 | Intra 7776.00 | 7840.00 | ~7670–7680. Prior Ultra nearby. |
| E-mini Nasdaq Dec (NQZ26) | Ultra 28700 | Intra 28400 | 28000 | Ultra 29500 | Intra 29800 | 30200 | ~28900–29000 (weak). Prior Ultra 29700 buy filled. |
| E-mini Dow Dec (YMZ26) | Ultra 52200 | Intra 51900 | 51500 | Ultra 52900 | Intra 53200 | 53600 | ~52400–52500. Prior Ultra 52720 sell filled. |
Softs
Driver: Cocoa and coffee still digesting recent lows and weather/supply headlines; sugar mixed.
- Short-term: Cocoa Dec put spreads; coffee Dec straddle.
- Long-dated: Cocoa Mar calls on any weather shift; coffee Mar call spreads.
| Market | Ultra Buy | Intra Buy | Outlier Buy | Ultra Sell | Intra Sell | Outlier Sell | Notes / Previous Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cocoa Dec | Ultra 5350 | Intra 5280 | 5180 | Ultra 5620 | Intra 5700 | 5800 | Prior Ultra/Intra buys filled. Confirm live. |
| Coffee Dec | Ultra 282.00 | Intra 276.50 | 269.00 | Ultra 298.00 | Intra 304.50 | 312.00 | Prior Ultra 289.50 buy filled. Format 311.95 style. |
| Sugar Mar | Ultra 20.80 | Intra 20.40 | 19.90 | Ultra 22.20 | Intra 22.60 | 23.10 | Confirm live. |
Lumber
Driver: Seasonal accumulation bias near lows; housing data still mixed.
| Market | Ultra Buy | Intra Buy | Outlier Buy | Ultra Sell | Intra Sell | Outlier Sell | Notes / Previous Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lumber (LBR) [month] | Ultra 520.0 | Intra 505.0 | 485.0 | Ultra 560.0 | Intra 575.0 | 595.0 | Confirm live quote and contract. Do not remove. |
Meats
Driver: Cattle holding recent recovery; hogs still soft into seasonal weakness.
- Short-term: Live cattle Dec put spreads or straddle; lean hogs Dec puts.
- Long-dated: Feb cattle call spreads on demand; Feb hogs puts into winter.
| Market | Ultra Buy | Intra Buy | Outlier Buy | Ultra Sell | Intra Sell | Outlier Sell | Notes / Previous Hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Live Cattle Dec | Ultra 225.50 | Intra 223.80 | 221.50 | Ultra 232.50 | Intra 234.50 | 237.00 | Prior Ultra 229.20 / Intra 227.80 buys filled. |
| Lean Hogs Dec | Ultra 58.50 | Intra 57.60 | 56.20 | Ultra 62.50 | Intra 63.50 | 64.80 | Prior Ultra/Intra buys filled (new contract low). |
Levels for reference only. Confirm live quotes. Contact Phil Flynn at 888-264-5665 or pflynn@pricegroup.com. Not a recommendation.
| TUESDAY, NOV. 7 | ||||||
| 7:30 am | U.S. trade deficit | Sept. | -$59.8B | $58.3 billion | ||
| 8:15 am | Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr speaks | |||||
| 9:00 am | Fed Gov. Waller speaks | |||||
| 3:00 pm | Consumer credit | Sept. | $9.5B | -15.6 | ||
| 3:30 | API Energy Stocks |
Levels for reference only. Confirm live quotes. Contact Phil Flynn at 888-264-5665 or pflynn@pricegroup.com. Not a recommendation.
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